The 2016 presidential race has begun and the Trump brand of politics is surprisingly resonating with the people who are fed up with the “Do Nothing” Congress. There is a clear consensus that the politicians in Washington, DC have lost their way and they are not only not solving any problems but they are making the lives of people harder than ought to be, and under their leadership the country is rapidly sliding into chaos with slow-growth economy, high unemployment, stagnated incomes, loss of America’s prestige in the world, and increasing extremism within the society. It was not a “huge” job for billionaire Donald Trump, a graduate of ivy-league school, to tap into this utter disillusionment among the voters and deliver his inspiring message in politically incorrect way with a catchy slogan “Make America Great Again.” Traditional politicians armed with hundreds of millions of campaign dollars raised via super-PACs, don’t quite know how to counter Trumpmenia. The voters are mesmerized by Trump’s blunt talk against the “stupid” government and they seem to believe that he is the only one in the pack who could actually solve the people’s problems and restore America’s greatness again. The voters also believe that Trump, who is using his own fortune to run for the presidency, is not controlled by lobbyists as every other candidate is; hence, they conclude that Trump will do what is in the best interest of the country rather than what’s best for raising campaign funds and getting re-elected.
Below is a snapshot of where we stand in the evolving presidential race which has all the trademarks of a Shakespearean comedy-cum-drama (mostly because of Trump’s speaking his mind in uninhibited way, using words that other politicians wouldn’t dare to utter in public):
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The
gap between the rich and the poor is at its worst in recent history. In the
aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the ultra-easy monetary policies
pursued by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the ECB in EU have
benefited the rich the most, thereby worsening income inequality.
This has led to a wave of socialistic sentiment spreading throughout the world,
especially in the U.S. and EU. With the rich becoming richer and the
middle-class hit very hard, the support for right-wing conservatism (that
espouses trickle-down economics) has steadily declined in the U.S. This trend
will be a key factor in the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S. as well
as national elections in the U.K. The recent polls show that
candidates who consider themselves as conservatives are lagging while
pragmatists and socialists (e.g., Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders) are doing
relatively better. In the U.K. the Labor Party is well situated to prevail over the Conservative Party.
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With the approval rating of the Congress stuck in low 10’s for many years,
mostly because of the gridlock in Washington, DC and lackluster leadership by
the Congressional leaders, the time seems ripe for tossing the political system
upside down. The people are disgusted and they are shouting that they will not take
it anymore. They want to throw the “Do Nothing” Congress under the bus and
start all over. The people believe that the members of Congress are not earning
their paychecks and perks. These "stupid" people, as Trump likes to
call them, know that their approval rating is very low and yet they just don't
care and they continue to stick to their chairs. Most honorable people would rather
say that if people disapprove of their performance, then they should just leave.
But no, they found the best career there is where they are paid handsomely and
they have the lucrative benefits, and they don't even have to be in office to
do absolutely nothing. The people wouldn't hesitate to elect Trump and let him
loose and straighten out Washington DC - Trump could chase these no-good people
out of the Capitol or make them earn their paychecks. President Trump would not
hesitate to shame these Senators and Congressmen in colorful language and work
to terminate their medical benefits (they can buy their own on Government Exchanges),
drop pensions (like many private-sector companies are doing), and make them
fill out time sheets and pay for hours they actually do work (after all, paychecks
of the members of Congress are handled by the U.S. Treasury department).
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President Barack Obama’s aloofness and unimaginative governing style have
unnecessarily prolonged the economic recovery period in the post-financial
crisis of 2008. Obama’s lack of popularity at home and his cautious approach to
world events (commonly referred to as “leading from behind”), has led to a
decline in America’s prestige and it has created a sort of vacuum which has led
to unprecedented instability in the Middle East caused by the rise of ISIS,
Russian annexation of Crimea, and China’s aggressive policies in the South China
Sea. Today, the world peace and security are in a more dangerous space than
they were before Obama took office in 2009. The voters are tired of the
capital’s destructive political culture and they have a strong dislike for the
establishment candidates in both parties, Gov. Jeb Bush (Republican) and
Secretary Hillary Clinton (Democrat). The voters’ calculation is that it will
take an outsider, such as Trump, to change the status quo which explains why
candidates who have never held a political office before are doing much better
so far than the big name candidates that are supported by the established party
infrastructure (fund raisers and political advisors).
Below is a look at the major candidates:Hillary Clinton (Democrat):
In recent polls, a majority of people have said that Hillary Clinton is a liar, conniving, dishonest, and untrustworthy. As the Secretary of State, Clinton used a private e-mail server located in the basement of her house; when this became publicly known, she had half of the e-mails deleted and the server wiped clean (so that the deleted e-mails couldn’t be retrieved) before handing over the server to the FBI under a court order. The people strongly suspect that Clinton has been trying to hide wrongdoings. The speculation is that Clinton may have gotten rid of e-mails that Congressional Republicans were seeking in connection with the killing of American ambassador and other personnel at Benghazi in Libya. Some suspect that those e-mails contained classified information which would be considered illegal. There is also speculation that those e-mails may have contained evidence of a clever influence peddling scheme: Clinton, as the Secretary of State, would use her influence to help foreign governments or companies, and, in return, these governments and companies would invite her husband Bill or her daughter Chelsea for paid speeches (paying as much as $700,000 per speech) and make generous donations to Clinton Foundation. The New York Times reported that Clinton intervened with IRS to help Swiss bank UBS on the issue of its role in helping Americans evade income taxes and, in return, UBS invited Bill for paid speeches and donated money to Clinton Foundation. This scheme of influence peddling explains how Clintons became so rich so quickly. When they left the White House in 2000, Clinton said that they were “broke” but now they are reportedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Also, there have been reports that the Clintons have been using the Foundation money to fly in private jets and stay in five-star hotels, and spend relatively less on charity work when compared with other charities. Even Trump commented that if he had known that the Clintons would be flying in private jets, he would not have donated money to their Foundation. There are some people who think that Clinton’s deleting e-mails and wiping clean the mail server before handing over to the FBI amount to obstruction of justice and she should be prosecuted. It seems like the Watergate scandal all over again! President Richard Nixon tried to withhold evidence, tamper with the evidence, and even destroy evidence - and to the end he kept saying that he did nothing wrong. Every day, there were new revelations and finally investigators found the smoking gun - Nixon resigned and he was immediately pardoned by incoming President Gerald Ford so Nixon wouldn't end up in jail for numerous unlawful activities including obstruction of justice. The FBI is still investigating e-mails and Clinton is expected to appear before Congressional committees that are investigating the Benghazi case. Even though Clinton deleted half of the e-mails, those e-mails could still be out there with those who either sent or received those e-mails. This whole issue of e-mails is creating a big uncertainty about the viability of Clinton’s candidacy and her disapproval rating is steadily going up. The vulnerability of Clinton candidacy is prompting Vice President Joe Biden to consider jumping into the race.
Deleted e-mails are the key to exposing any alleged criminal activities. FBI should follow the money trail - who gave how much money to Bill and Chelsea and to Foundation and also look into how Foundation money was spent. Would Obama appointed Attorney General seriously look into all of this? During Obama’s recent vacation, he was seen playing golf with Bill Clinton – given active e-mail investigations, was that Obama’s signal to FBI to not aggressively pursue Hillary Clinton’s e-mail issues?
In terms of policy, Clinton has put forward a detailed plan to make college education free, funded by tax dollars. However, there is a general belief that Clinton’s proposed $350 billion college education plan is a dumb idea and it will never pass Republican controlled Congress. More government money means a green light to schools to keep increasing the tuition fee. Instead of making more money available, the government should regulate tuition fee and try to control the college cost, which has been increasing at a much higher rate than the overall inflation.
Donald Trump (Republican):
Trump is the only candidate who can call the members of Congress as “stupid” or a female journalist as “bimbo” and the people would cheer him every time he uttered politically-incorrect words. The voters think that Trump is telling the truth and he is someone who wouldn’t hesitate to tell the people what he thinks (e.g., deporting all illegal immigrants including those who were born here off parents who came to the U.S. illegally). If any other candidate talked as bluntly as Trump does, that candidate would have crashed and burned already. Blunt talk has become a trademark of Trump and the voters seem to approve as is evident from the poll numbers that show Trump is way ahead of all other candidates. The crowds at his rallies are bigger than at the rallies of all other candidates combined.
One of the reasons why Trump is winning over the voters is that he has highlighted many issues that are also on the minds of voters. Trump has been traveling around the country in his own plane and helicopter tirelessly and the enthusiastic crowds at each stop are responding positively to his hard work (no other candidate has had that many rallies or held that many press conferences).
On policy matters, Trump has talked about the following issues without offering specific plans:
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Immigration: Trump plans to build a wall on our
southern border with Mexico (paid for by increased visa fee for Mexicans),
increase drone surveillance, and border patrols. Our southern border is so
porous that many non-Mexicans are crossing it illegally either looking for
better life for their families or entering the country to engage in espionage
or even terrorism. He plans to deport all illegal immigrants including the
children who were born here off illegal immigrants. Trump wants to shut down shelters
and discontinue welfare programs for those who came here illegally. These
benefits are only inviting even more illegal immigrants. Most people agree with
Trump on his plan.
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Trump is angry at Obama, who has been dealing
with China with soft gloves and letting China gain at our expense. Trump wants
to change the U.S. policy towards China dramatically and bring the
manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. He will also deal harshly with the U.S.
businesses that are exporting the jobs overseas – he said that he will never
eat Oreo cookies made by Nabisco because they moved their plant to Mexico.
Again, the American people whole heartedly approve his thinking. Trump has
mastered the art of deal-making and many people think that he would negotiate
better trade deals than Obama.
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Trump believes that Obama has proven to be a
weak international leader and he has decimated our military. He plans to
increase defense spending and make the U.S. military a truly superpower to be
feared.
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Trump has made treating the veterans better and
fixing the veteran hospital a major issue of his campaign and most Americans
agree with that.
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Trump plans to increase taxes by eliminating the
tax loophole granted to rich hedge fund managers who are not paying their fair
share of taxes. This position is widely supported by the “Occupy Wall Street”
activists.
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Trump believes that under Obama the government
regulations have increased exponentially that are hurting our economy,
especially the small businesses. He plans to roll back regulations and make the
government smaller but more efficient. This resonates well with the members of
the Tea Party.
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Most people agree with Trump that we should
fight only those wars that need to be fought and we should just let our
military commanders win rather than constrain them with all kinds of political
considerations. Many voters also agree that we should not fight wars for other
countries without being compensated. If Japan or Saudi Arabia or anyone else
wants us to partner with them in fighting terrorism or our common adversaries,
we shouldn’t be the only one paying for those efforts.
The voters tend to believe that Trump is a no-nonsense business mogul who would rely on good management and competent managers. He will be tougher with Putin and restore American prestige in the world. Under Trump, economy would fare better. Also, he is loaded with money, so he is not in this for money (his campaign is funded by himself so he will not have lobbyists dictating his policies). Even though many voters feel uncomfortable with Trump’s bombastic style and blunt talk, Americans could take a chance with him - if you want the current grid-locked government to work, somebody has to turn it upside down and Trump is the only man who could do it. Assuming Trump can execute his campaign promises, he could do a much better job in managing economy and military than other candidates, while being open minded and pragmatic about social issues. Trump is not an ideologue and many Americans are where he is and that explains why he is resonating with the voters.
Jeb Bush (Republican):
So far, Bush has been a big disappointment. He is not clear on his positions, he has not explained why he wants to be the president, and he comes across as too laid back and an unlikely person who could change things in Washington DC. Also, most voters are fatigued with the names of Bush and Clinton (combined they have had five presidential and two vice-presidential terms already) and they really want someone else who is an “outsider.” The voters don’t believe Bush or Clinton would be able to change the status quo in Washington, DC.
Bush's performance on the campaign trail and the first debate has been surprisingly weak. In one video, his angry exchange with one of the voters was kind of strange that made him look un-presidential. He has flip-flopped on Iraq war several times and his inability to articulate his positions on other issues clearly is very damaging.
The voters elected a black man twice, so it's very unlikely that they will elect another minority this time (if they did, it would reflect poorly on whites as if they don't have presidential caliber people - it would be like minority Sunnis ruling Iraq and we know how that turned out). So that leaves out Dr. Ben Carson, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Sen. Marco Rubio. Gov. Chris Christie can't win even in his home state, so he is out. Gov. Jim Walker is too anti-blue collar which worked in his home state for local elections, but he has not yet found his grooves on the presidential campaign trail. Sen. Rand Paul is a niche Tea Party candidate which lost its vigor in the last couple of years, so he is out. Gov. John Kasich is too nice and not conservative enough; perhaps a likely vice-presidential candidate. Gov. Huckabee is too evangelical which is a turn off to many voters. Carly Fiorina, while she did alright in the first second-tier debate, her negatives include her tenure at Hewlett-Packard that left tens of thousands of employees without jobs and she was fired by the Hewlett-Packard Board. Also, she ran for an elective office before but she was defeated. So, Fiorina is out. The establishment seems to be pushing Bush (judging from the fact that his campaign has raised over $100 million so far, mostly through PACs), but his performance in the first debate and on the trail has been lackluster and voters are tired of the “Bush” name. Trump is ahead in the polls, but the voters have questions about his temperament and, if elected, can he deliver on his promises.
On the Democratic side, Clinton is leading in the polls but Sen. Bernie Sanders is proving to be remarkably strong. However, the country is unlikely to go along with a third socialist Obama-term, so Sanders has no chance (even if he defeats Clinton in the primaries or he gets the nomination by default because Clinton is forced to withdraw from the race because of the e-mail controversy), he is unlikely to be elected as the president.
The election is more than one year away which, in terms of presidential politics, is like eternity. Undoubtedly, there will be ups and downs and changing polls as we go through the remaining debates, but as of now it looks like it would be a Trump vs Clinton contest. The game has just begun, more chapters in this Shakespearean saga are yet to be written.
