Monday, May 19, 2014

Indian Elections: Abslolute majority by pro-business party is a game changer

Posted by Shyam Moondra


The largest democratic election in the world showed how India’s political system has matured since it won independence from the British rule in 1947. The final vote count reveals that for the first time in the last 30 years, a single political party (the BJP) has won an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliamentary system. The BJP’s leader, Narendra Modi, is slated to be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of India. The Congress Party, which has dominated Indian politics for the last six decades, stumbled badly and won only 44 seats out of 543 seats; Congress' incumbent leader, Manmohan Singh, promptly resigned as the Prime Minister.

Modi, who has served as the Chief Minister of Gujarat state for 12 years, has developed a reputation of a no-nonsense honest politician in hurry to modernize his home state by liberalizing licensing policies and streamlining bureaucratic procedures for businesses that wanted to set up new factories and create jobs. His election at the national level has obviously created high expectations, as is evident from the fact that the news of the BJP’s victory propelled the Indian stock market to record high and strengthened Rupee against all major world currencies.

Now the talk of the town is if Modi would be able to accomplish at the national level what he accomplished at the state level. He is described as a decisive and strong leader, who would push through his pro-business programs in the parliament. His Hindu nationalistic credentials make certain parts of the population uneasy (e.g., the Muslims), but his pro-growth economic policies trump that fear because even minorities want more high paying jobs for their children and grand children.

The initial excitement about the election results is over and all eyes are now focused on who Modi will pick as ministers in his cabinet and what specific goals he will set for his administration. Below is a 10-point plan that Modi might consider:

1.   Corruption: It's too deeply rooted at all levels of government and it is holding the country back. Modi has the reputation of being an honest politician – the hope is that his first task would be to clean up the government.

2.   Infrastructure: India has made big strides in improving roads, highways, bridges, power distribution, water resources, airports, marine ports and terminals, and telecommunications and high-speed Internet networks. However, much more needs to be done. Railway system is a relic of the British Raj – India needs a complete overhaul of the railway system that includes high-speed trains. Modi apparently has a plan to build bullet train system modeled after that of Japan.

3.   Free-market Economy: Indian bureaucracy is legendary in terms of how long it takes to approve a new project. Modi's success in the state of Gujarat was primarily because of his streamlined licensing procedures; he got the government out of the way of businesses. Modi needs to do the same at the national level.
 
4.   Capital Investment: Modi must urgently loosen up controls and make the business environment more attractive to foreign investors and companies. India is a vast country with a huge population and accelerated capital and technology inflow will help speed up the pace of modernization in energy, manufacturing (which is lagging far behind that of other Asian giants), defense, health care, and other industries.
 
5.   Defense: India is far behind in terms of military capabilities compared to other major countries such as China that has several border disputes with India. India must modernize army, air force, and navy. Expanding the military footprint and acquiring modern military assets are essential to deter aggressive designs by China and other countries.
 
6.   Religious and Ethnic Tolerance: Modi must immediately dispel any doubts that he is anti-Muslim or anti-Buddhist or anti-Christian. Modi must reject intolerance and find a way to leverage the strength of diversity to accelerate economic growth, just as the U.S. has done. A united India is a strong India. Also, Modi must do more for women equality and have tougher laws against rape.
 
7.   Rural Modernization: While cities are bustling with all modern amenities, the rural India is still far behind and needs a crash program to speed up modernization there. Deploy the newest agricultural technologies and train farmers to increase the crop output, make electricity and running water available in each village, provide more robust transportation system for local travel, and build adequate health care facilities and schools.
 
8.   Pollution and Climate Change: Pollution is a major health hazard in India. India needs a separate Department, similar to the Environmental Protection Agency we have here, to make big progress in reducing pollution and controlling carbon monoxide emissions from coal-fired plants.
 
9.   Foreign Affairs: India must resolve the Kashmir issue with Pakistan (accept LOC as the final border) and allow free flow of people and trade between the two halves controlled by India and Pakistan. India needs to be more assertive on the world stage and assume its rightful place as a major power backed up by strong military. India needs to form regional alliances and lead them. If India wants to be recognized as a major economic and military power, India must act and behave like one. India needs to become a more active player at the UN and double up its efforts to become the permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.
 
10. India, as an ancient civilization, has rich cultural heritage that portrays its character. Modi needs to put the government behind public and private efforts to preserve, expand, and cultivate all art forms.

Modi's decisive victory in the general elections affords him and the country an extraordinary opportunity to improve business climate and accelerate economic growth, and ultimately become a great power that once it was centuries ago.