Monday, July 25, 2011

"Vinash Kale Vipreet Budhi" - Republicans gone mad and self-destruction is imminent


Posted by Shyam Moondra

On the question of increasing the U.S. debt ceiling, Republicans are playing a losing game with a weak hand - they will not achieve their goals but they will do serious harm to the country and voters will not forgive them for this.

If there is a rating downgrade or actual default on the U.S. debt, the markets will crash and rich individuals and corporations will suffer most of the losses. It's inconceivable that Republicans would be stupid enough to hurt their own supporters because that would mean less campaign contributions and a humiliating defeat in the next election.

President Barack Obama is on the right side - his suggestion to reduce deficit by cutting spending and raising tax revenues in a 3:1 ratio is very reasonable and that is a proven formula used by President Ronald Reagan and President Bill Clinton that brought prosperity. In any case, Obama is morally right in asserting that rich people also share in the pain. As President Lincoln once said you place your feet in the right place and then hold firm. Obama has overwhelming support of the American people on his position.

As to the Republicans, they have gone completely mad, or as the British would say "nutters." There is a saying in Sanskrit "Vinash Kale Vipreet Budhi" - their brains gone mad and self-destruction is imminent (do Google search to understand the phrase better). It's like Republicans supported extremist Tea Party and now Tea Partiers are destroying Republican Party. May be the decline of the United States is "written," as in karma; the God is merely using Republicans as an enabler to massive self-destruction.

In a democracy, the people are the supreme. However, at the moment, a handful of Republicans and their leaders have taken the people and their fate as hostages, and the people are helpless because the next election is so far away.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

The Republican approach to debt limit is riddled with inconsistencies - they get an "F"

Posted by Shyam Moondra


The negotiations on extending the debt limit have been going on between the Republicans and Democrats for weeks without any progress. The Republicans are behaving badly. They are not negotiating in good faith and they are being inconsistent in their approach. Here are some examples:

· The House Speaker Boehmer keeps saying that President Obama has not offered a plan. The Congress spent the money during the Bush presidency and it's their job to come up with a plan. Obama has made suggestions and told the Congress what he wants, but it's the Congress' job to come up with a plan on how to reduce the deficit.

· Republicans want to balance the budget as soon as possible. Obama offered his support for a big $4 trillion plan but Republicans are dragging their feet; now they say that they prefer a smaller plan which will take forever to balance the budget.

· Republicans want to talk about what they want but walk away when others want to talk about things Republicans don't like. In negotiations, one should expect give-and-take; we have a democracy not dictatorship. Republicans want 100% of what they want and 0% of what others want - how do you expect to make a deal?

· President Bush increased the budget deficit by over $4 trillion by going on a reckless spending spree supported by the Congressional Republicans. Bush spent $1 trillion on tax cuts to the rich, $1 trillion on the unnecessary Iraq war (no WMD found), $1 trillion on bank bailouts (if Bush hadn't relaxed regulations, may be the financial crisis wouldn't have happened), and $1 trillion on tax subsidies to oil companies, farmers, drug companies, etc. So, as a starting point, why not just "undo" what Bush did (of course, war money is gone, so nothing can be done about that).

· Republicans want to slash or get rid of Social Security and Medicare. These programs didn't create the deficit (in fact, Congress has been siphoning surplus funds from Social Security and spending that money on other things), so it makes no sense to make these programs a primary target for the cuts. Reforming these entitlement programs is a separate issue and it shouldn't be tied to the debt issue.

· Sen. Hatch and other Republicans voted seven times to increase the debt ceiling during the Bush presidency (and that is primarily responsible for our problems today) but now Hatch and others are so vocal about the dire consequences of increasing the debt limit. When Republicans talk from both ends of their mouths, it doesn't inspire confidence and it doesn't look like they are fighting for their principle as they claim.

· Republicans want to reduce the budget deficit. But many of them are saying that not increasing the debt limit is better because that will force the country to live within its means. However, a default will increase the interest rates (which will increase the cost of borrowing) and slowdown economy (which will reduce the tax revenues); so the budget deficit will actually get worse not better. It's like, to get rid of the disease, just kill the patient!

· Republicans are trying desperately to protect the interests of the rich people and corporations, who benefited the most during the Bush presidency. They are even willing to let the country default on its debt; however, a default will crash the markets and reduce corporate profits (because of the slowdown in economy burdened with higher interest rates), severely hurting the very people and businesses Republicans are trying to protect from the proposed tax reforms.

· Republicans argue that even a small tax increase will hurt the economy. However, the fact of the matter is that President Clinton did exactly that to balance the budget during his second term and we had the most prosperous four years in the modern history. Most economists dispute the claim of Republicans that small tax adjustments will have ruinous impact on economy - at the moment, not reducing deficit is more ruinous than a small increase in taxes. In fact, severe spending cuts, as advocated by the Republicans, will reduce consumer spending and thus slowdown the economy.

I think Republicans are handling the issue of debt limit in the worst possible way and they have lost the confidence of the American people, as is evident from the recent opinion polls that show that up to 80% of Americans like the balanced approach being pushed by Obama. The arguments offered by the Republicans are riddled with inconsistencies and, in most part, they are nonsensical. I think Obama's ten-year plan for a $4 trillion deficit reduction that incorporates spending cuts and tax reforms (such as closing certain tax loop-holes, eliminating unnecessary tax subsidies, and limiting deductions for millionaires/billionaires) is the preferred way to go. This plan is balanced and it's large enough to put us on a path of making a big dent in the budget deficit. If Republicans continue on their current inconsistent approach, they will pay a big price in the next round of elections.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

New math of political reality on debt default


Posted by Shyam Moondra


. Debt default = Congressional leadership failure = Resignations by Reid/McConnell and Boehner/Cantor/Pelosi on moral ground.

. Republicans voted to increase debt ceiling 7 times during Bush presidency = Foot dragging now makes them look like hypocrites = Big loss of credibility.

· Debt default = Lower U.S. debt rating = Market crash = Rich people lose their wealth = Lower campaign contributions = Incumbent Obama wins.

· Debt default = Republicans get blamed for their intransigence = Republicans lose control of House in 2012.

· Debt default = Messy government = National security at risk.

· Debt/deficit too high = Budget can't be balanced just based on spending cuts = Need a combination of tax revenues and spending cuts.

· Clinton increased taxes and cut spending = Led to the most prosperous 4 years in a row in modern history = Republicans are overstating the effect of tax increases.

· Bush tax cuts = huge gain for millionaires/billionaires = It's fair and moral to make them share the burden of balancing the budget.

· Too severe spending cuts = Devastating effect on middle-class = Lead to recession and higher joblessness = Republicans, the champions of the rich, get blamed for suffering = Obama wins and house goes to Democrats, both the champions of the middle-class.

· Corporate tax loop holes = GE pays zero taxes, Google pays 2%, and Goldman Sachs pays 10% = Corporations not paying their fair share of taxes = People blame Republicans for catering to business special interests.

· Tax subsidies to filthy rich oil companies, wealthy hedge fund managers, and rich private jet owners = Republicans' blind support for the rich and powerful = Populous revolt by the middle-class against Republicans = Impossible to win an election without the support of the middle-class.

. Bush piled up $4 trillion deficit because of tax cuts to the rich, Iraq war, bank bailouts, and special interest tax subsidies to oil companies and others = Social Security and Medicare didn't cause deficit = Undo Bush policies to reduce deficit rather than target elderly, children, and poor.