Monday, June 11, 2012

Obama’s re-election campaign is in disarray – need to retool strategy and sharpen up the message


Posted by Shyam Moondra

President Barack Obama has thus far failed to articulate why he should be re-elected. His message is often muddled and confusing. While Obama has done a good job in explaining why Governor Mitt Romney would not make a good president, he has not yet made the case for his own second term. As a result, many Democrats are now beginning to feel that Obama could lose and many Republicans are now feeling energized with the thought that Romney has a better than 50-50 chance of winning the White House. The same team of brilliant political strategists that helped propel Obama’s ascendancy to the presidency has surprisingly fumbled the ball in their efforts to get Obama re-elected.

During a recent press conference, Obama said that “the private sector is doing fine.” Romney and other Republicans picked on that and labeled Obama as being out of touch. What Obama meant to say was that corporate profits are running at record levels; it would be dumb founded to tell the unemployed and underemployed that economy is doing fine. Obama just made a poor choice of words. Later, Obama tried to correct his misleading statement by clarifying what he really meant to say, but the damage was already done.

Obama has done a very good job in foreign affairs. Recent polls indicate that, on security matters, the American people overwhelmingly approve Obama’s performance as the commander-in-chief. To bolster Obama’s security credentials, someone in his administration may have leaked classified information about our use of unmanned drones, double-agents penetrating the terrorist organization Al Quaeda, and cyber warfare against Iran’s nuclear operations. Most Americans and our allies are bothered by the use of national security secrets for political purposes. The Department of Justice is now investigating if anyone in the administration leaked the classified information. Why didn’t the administration officials just point to the end results rather than elaborate on how it was done? The admission that the U.S. is engaged in cyber warfare will only encourage our adversaries to increase their own efforts in developing cyber warfare capabilities to damage our power grid or other sensitive public installations.

Recently, former President Bill Clinton, the most popular among the living ex-presidents, said things that seemed to politically help Romney. First, Clinton praised Romney’s “sterling” record as a businessman, which is in sharp contrast to Obama’s message that Romney’s record at Bain private equity firm is one of job destroyer. Clinton also said that the Bush tax cuts should be temporarily extended for everyone, which contradicts Obama’s position to not extend these tax cuts for the rich, a position which is overwhelmingly supported by the people. Clinton later tried to clarify his statement on tax cuts saying that he agreed with the president, but the Republicans made the best of Clinton's gaffe.

Lately, Obama has been talking about hiring more teachers as a way to solve economic problems, but many voters feel underwhelmed by this new vision of Obama’s second term. Also, Romney has so far outdone Obama in raising campaign funds which will also boost Romney’s chances of winning the election. Lagging campaign contributions suggest that Obama’s grass-root support is not as strong this time around as it was in 2008.

The above political gaffes and missteps show that Obama’s re-election efforts are in disarray. Obama seems to be focusing on Romney’s past record without articulating his own vision for the future; the polling data suggests that Obama’s approach is not being very effective. Obama needs to talk more about his accomplishments during his first term and also provide his vision for the second term.

The following could be Obama’s narrative of what he has accomplished so far:

• Obama’s bailouts of banks and auto industry and stimulus spending helped stabilize the economy. Towards the end of George W. Bush’s presidency, we were losing jobs but now we are gaining jobs, albeit at a slower pace than desired.

• Corporate profits are at record levels that will pave the way for increased capital investment and more hiring going forward.

• Obama pushed for temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts that were instrumental in turning the economy around.

• Obama pushed for regulatory reforms to prevent a recurrence of the 2008 financial crisis that decimated our economy during the final year of the Bush presidency.

• Obama successfully used a high-tech approach (from unmanned drones to cyber warfare to stealth helicopters) in the fight against terrorists, achieving high efficiency at minimal cost. He could cite the killings of the top Al Quaeda leaders, including Osama bin Laden, something that had eluded Bush for years. Obama’s emphasis on brains over muscle has won high marks among the American people and our allies.

• Obama kept his campaign promises of ending the war in Iraq and winding down our combat missions in Afghanistan, both wars being viewed by a majority of Americans as wasteful and unnecessary.

• Obama diplomatically outmaneuvered Iran and got punishing U.N. sanctions imposed on the theocratic regime. These sanctions are proving to be onerous on the Iranian people that has brought the regime back to the negotiating table on the nuclear weapon issue. The biting sanctions have also made it unnecessary, at least for now, to wage a potentially expensive and unpredictable war against Iran by Israel or/and the U.S.

• Obama shrewdly put together a coalition against Libya and let our allies do the heavy lifting. Obama brought democracy to Libya without waging an expensive on-the-ground military campaign. Again, this is an example of Obamanian use of brains over muscles.

• Obama successfully leveraged our military-to-military relationships in bringing democracy to Egypt without bloodshed.

• Obama tackled the nagging problem of spiraling health care cost, which is negatively affecting our economy. Early indications show that the health care cost increases are slowing down as a result of Obama’s health care reforms.

• Obama accomplished many things in spite of the lack of Republican cooperation in the Congress. Obama could cite the following issues where he could have made more progress had there not been a gridlock in the Congress: deficit reduction, pay equality for women, immigration reforms, student loan, etc. It shouldn't be hard for Obama to run against "do nothing" Congress that has the lowest approval rating of 9% on record, thanks to the radical tendencies of the Tea-Party dominated Republicans in the House.

The following could be Obama’s narrative of what he wants to do in his second term:

• Reform the tax code to ensure that the rich individuals and corporations pay their fair share of taxes. When Warren Buffett pays less in taxes than his secretary or when GE pays 0%, Google pays 2%, or Goldman Sachs pays 10% in taxes, then we know that the tax code needs to be re-worked. We need to eliminate tax loop-holes and tax havens as well as tax subsidies to rich oil companies and farmers.

• Come up with a long-term plan to reduce deficit by combining revenue enhancements and spending cuts in a balanced way.

• Pursue an aggressive measurable plan to make the U.S. energy independent.

• Implement our military focus on the emerging Asia-Pacific region by shifting military assets to that region to protect our long-term security interests.

• Develop a bi-partisan approach to reforming our immigration laws and making our borders more secured.

• Tackle the problem of declining academic standing of the U.S. students in the world. We need a more aggressive plan on improving educational standards that will, in turn, ensure that our companies remain competitive in global trade.

Obama became the president at a time when we were in the middle of the worst financial crisis and severe recession since the depression of the 1930’s, and the country was involved in two major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since then he has had many accomplishments that have not yet been talked about in the present presidential campaign. Obama also needs to explain to the people what he wants to do in the second term. An aggressive campaign strategy should also include the goal of helping Democrats regain the control of the House that would help Obama get his proposals passed by the Congress. Of course, Obama should continue to point out Romney’s less than “sterling” record as a businessman and as the former governor of Massachusetts, and lack of Romney’s vision for the future. Romney has said nothing beyond repeating the unproven mantra that he will reduce taxes and cut spending without giving any specifics on how. Obama has a pretty good chance to be re-elected, only if he and his team could do a much better job in articulating where they have been and where they are going. It’s Obama’s election to lose!