Posted by Shyam Moondra
In 2008, Republican presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain was running behind Democrat Barack Obama and McCain was looking for a game-changer to energize his uninspiring campaign. McCain found it in Sarah Palin, then Governor of Alaska, whom he chose as his running mate. However, Palin turned out to be a disastrous choice which ultimately led to McCain’s humiliating defeat in the election. Now, four years later, it is déjà vu all over again. Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney is running behind Democrat President Obama and Romney needed a game-changer, so he picked as his running mate Rep. Paul Ryan, an ultra conservative from Wisconsin where Obama is presently ahead in the polls.
Romney’s announcement of Ryan being his running mate has indeed energized the Republican base, judging from the size of the crowds that are showing up at their joint appearances since the announcement. The same thing happened when Palin was chosen by McCain as his running mate; her colorful speeches (that included such lines as “pig with lipstick”) did arouse the crowds especially the conservatives, but that initial excitement didn’t last for long and eventually it became clear that Palin was not a wise choice after all. Ryan would probably meet the same fate. Once Ryan's budget plan is dissected more fully and his positions on Medicare and Social Security programs, tax cuts for the rich, abortion, and gay marriage start sinking in the hearts and minds of various constituents, the initial excitement would fade and reality set in.
Romney has been a moderate Republican all his life, which is evident from his record as the Governor of Massachusetts, where he reformed health care that later became the blueprint for Obamacare. Romney’s policies there on many social issues such as abortion and gay marriage were too similar to those of Obama and too moderate for right-wing ideologues. Those may be the reasons why Romney rarely talks about his accomplishments as the Governor of Massachusetts on the campaign trail. Of course, since Romney started running for the president of the United States in 2008 (when he lost the nomination to McCain), Romney has tried rather unsuccessfully to re-brand himself as a conservative. He flip-flopped on many issues just to appeal to the conservatives many of whom deeply distrust him. In Ryan, a multi-term Representative from Wisconsin, Romney found an ultra conservative, who could possibly help Romney solidify his support within his own Party. The Ryan pick, however, is a retro move, Romney’s desperate attempt to retrofit his credentials to make him look like an authentic conservative, which he is not.
Ryan is a decent family man with impeccable personal qualities. His humble beginning is very appealing to many voters, which contrasts to Romney’s inability to connect with the ordinary folks given Romney’s enormous wealth and affluent background. Ryan has shown a great deal of courage in proposing his budget plan that would end Medicare as we know it, knowing full well that even some fellow Republicans would find it too extreme and that it would be ripped apart by many of his own senior constituents. His staunch support of conservative ideology (small government, low taxes for the rich and corporations, anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, anti-welfare programs, anti-entitlement programs, pro-gun, pro-personal freedoms, and pro-business) makes him a darling of the conservatives within the Republican Party, especially the Tea Partiers. However, this pick will ultimately prove to be a rack for Romney’s campaign because it will make it impossible for Romney to put together a winning coalition.
Here is a rap sheet on Ryan:
Positives:
• A decent family man with integrity and strong personal convictions.
• He is a self-made man with humble beginning, in sharp contrast to the affluent background of Romney.
• He is a policy wonk with good understanding of the budget issues. As the Chairman of House Budget Committee, he is well respected in and out of the Congress.
Negatives:
• Recently, former Vice President Dick Cheney said that the number one requirement for a VP pick is that he/she must be ready to become President on a moment's notice. Palin was not, nor is Ryan. Ryan is too young and has almost no foreign affairs experience.
• Ryan’s budget plan relies heavily on gutting Medicare and Social Security programs (that didn’t cause the current deficit) and giving tax cuts to the rich (as part of unproven “trickle-down” economics).
• Ryan’s proposal to privatize Medicare will shift the burden on to the senior citizens while creating a huge profit potential for the insurance companies. Given that Ryan received around $1 million in campaign contributions from the insurance industry, his proposals are tainted with potential conflict-of-interest.
• Ryan is way too conservative (almost to the point of being extreme) when it comes to issues like abortion, gay marriage, women pay equality, and civil rights.
• Ryan is part of the House Republican leadership team that is damaged because of its misbehavior during the debt ceiling debate that eventually led to the downgrade of government securities from AAA to AA+ by Standard & Poor, the first ever in our history. Their extreme tactics were overwhelmingly disapproved by the people.
Ryan lost no time in making federal budget as the number one issue and criticizing Obama for $1 trillion deficit and $15 trillion debt (never mind if Obama inherited from the former President George W. Bush severe recession, $1 trillion deficit, $10 trillion debt, and 2.6 million jobs lost in Bush’s final year in office). In fact, Ryan supported Bush’s $1 trillion worth of unnecessary tax cuts to the rich and tax subsidies to oil companies and farmers, $1 trillion spent on unnecessary wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and $700 billion worth of bank bailouts that became necessary after Bush reduced bank regulations which precipitated the 2008 financial crisis. Ryan was part of the problem but now he wants to fix the problems he helped create. Obama agrees that we need to reduce deficit; in fact, Obama negotiated with Republican House Speaker John Boehner a grand plan that would have reduced deficit by $4.5 trillion over ten years but that plan was torpedoed by Tea Partiers within the Republican Party because it included tax increases for the rich. Ryan is wrong when he says that Obama is not concerned about the deficit and debt; Obama wants to reduce deficit through a balanced approach (that combines tax increases and spending cuts) while Ryan wants to do it by gutting the Medicare and Social Security programs that didn’t cause the current deficit and make the middle-class bear the main burden of dealing with the deficit problem.
Ryan's selection would only solidify the support of women and senior citizens for Obama, supplementing Obama’s already strong lead among the Blacks, Hispanics, and young college students. The presence of Ryan on the Republican ticket may also push Independents to favor Obama. A powerful coalition of voters coming together like this is a sure prescription for a landslide victory for Obama in November. It’s now more likely that Obama would win the critical states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia, thereby accumulating far more than 270 electoral votes that he needs to prevail. A coattail effect of Obama’s victory may also mean that now there is more than 50% chance that Democrats may even end up winning the House of Representatives as well. It wouldn't be a surprise if Romney soon starts thinking about replacing Ryan on the ticket - well, that's what flip-floppers do.
A clean sweep by Democrats (controlling the White House, Senate, and House) would finally end the gridlock in Washington, DC and pave the way for a balanced approach to reforming the tax code and reducing budget deficit (by combining spending cuts and revenue increases in a 4:1 ratio) and making progress on the issues of immigration, education, and energy. In January, 2013, it’s very likely that the old grand plan of reducing deficit by $4.5 trillion over ten years, hammered out by Obama and Boehner, might finally get a second chance.
