Tuesday, July 5, 2011

New math of political reality on debt default


Posted by Shyam Moondra


. Debt default = Congressional leadership failure = Resignations by Reid/McConnell and Boehner/Cantor/Pelosi on moral ground.

. Republicans voted to increase debt ceiling 7 times during Bush presidency = Foot dragging now makes them look like hypocrites = Big loss of credibility.

· Debt default = Lower U.S. debt rating = Market crash = Rich people lose their wealth = Lower campaign contributions = Incumbent Obama wins.

· Debt default = Republicans get blamed for their intransigence = Republicans lose control of House in 2012.

· Debt default = Messy government = National security at risk.

· Debt/deficit too high = Budget can't be balanced just based on spending cuts = Need a combination of tax revenues and spending cuts.

· Clinton increased taxes and cut spending = Led to the most prosperous 4 years in a row in modern history = Republicans are overstating the effect of tax increases.

· Bush tax cuts = huge gain for millionaires/billionaires = It's fair and moral to make them share the burden of balancing the budget.

· Too severe spending cuts = Devastating effect on middle-class = Lead to recession and higher joblessness = Republicans, the champions of the rich, get blamed for suffering = Obama wins and house goes to Democrats, both the champions of the middle-class.

· Corporate tax loop holes = GE pays zero taxes, Google pays 2%, and Goldman Sachs pays 10% = Corporations not paying their fair share of taxes = People blame Republicans for catering to business special interests.

· Tax subsidies to filthy rich oil companies, wealthy hedge fund managers, and rich private jet owners = Republicans' blind support for the rich and powerful = Populous revolt by the middle-class against Republicans = Impossible to win an election without the support of the middle-class.

. Bush piled up $4 trillion deficit because of tax cuts to the rich, Iraq war, bank bailouts, and special interest tax subsidies to oil companies and others = Social Security and Medicare didn't cause deficit = Undo Bush policies to reduce deficit rather than target elderly, children, and poor.