Wednesday, April 29, 2009

All is well, if it ends well – a perspective on Obama's first 100 days in office


Posted by Shyam Moondra

Today marks the first 100 days of Barack Obama as the President of the United States. He has moved briskly on a number of fronts fulfilling his election campaign pledge of bringing change to America. There were some early missteps in the selection of certain people for cabinet posts, but Obama recovered quickly. Overall, Obama has had a very good start comparable to those of the greatest presidents such as Franklin Roosevelt. However, in the end, his presidency will be judged not based on how good a start he has had but how well will it all end.

President Obama didn't wave a magic wand and fixed the dire state of economy (yet), but he accomplished two big things: he brought a sense of direction and optimism among the population that has been missing for a long time. A vast majority of people now feels that the country is on the right track. The economy got in trouble because of the unchecked greed on the Wall Street and lack of regulatory oversight. Obama's strong and confident leadership helped calm the nerves of investors. Even though the unemployment rate continues to climb, the American people are now beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. A change in perception to neutralize the fear factor was a pre-requisite for a real improvement in economy that now seems to be within grasps.

President Obama may have returned home from his first European trip without getting everything he wanted, but he instantly restored the favorable views of American ideals and values in the eyes of friends and foes alike. And that itself was an impressive achievement. Aside from Obama's brilliant communications skills and supreme self-assurance, his treatment of other world leaders as equal partners will definitely yield dividends in the future. His non-confrontational approach and good listening skills will come handy in resolving the intractable problems of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran. Republican ideologues foolishly mocked Obama's exchange of smiles and handshakes with Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez at the recent Latin American summit. In doing so, they missed the point that you have a better chance of resolving misunderstandings and conflicts if you talk to your adversaries rather than avoid them. In the same venue, Obama's offer to start a dialogue with Iranians without any pre-conditions (a big change from George Bush's policy) will make it more likely that an acceptable accommodation on the nuclear issue will be found without resorting to a military action. His speech in Indonesia on relations with the Islamic countries laid the foundation for unradicalizing the Islamic countries and reducing anti-Americanism among the Muslims around the world.

In a short period of just 100 days, Obama did many of the things that he said he would do during the presidential campaign. He has already signed into law seven major pieces of legislation including the stimulus package and the largest spending plan in the history of the United States. Some of the changes were executed via executive orders and new regulations issued by the various government agencies. The following is a roster of Obama's specific accomplishments or work-in-progress:

Domestic Policy:

· He got his stimulus package passed by Congress that included extended unemployment benefits, tax cuts for the middle class, tax credits for first-time home buyers, and aid to homeowners by freezing foreclosures. Lowest mortgage interest rates ever are also making it possible for the homeowners to reduce their monthly interest payments via refinancing. The money saved on interest payments would stimulate consumer spending thereby boosting economy.
· He stayed with the bailouts initiated by the Bush Administration in spite of the overwhelming opposition of the American people. While his bailout actions may have helped stabilize the banking system, the taxpayers paid a huge price for that. There may also have been corruption in the way the money was disbursed. For example, Goldman Sachs, a strong financial institution, received $10 billion under TARP and another $12.6 billion through AIG (full payment for risky bets they made when a 30 cents on the dollar would have been more appropriate at the time). Also, the American people are concerned about government's extreme interference in how the companies are run because ultimately this will unmotivate the employees and, as a result, productivity and profitability of these companies will suffer. We urgently need an exit strategy to bring all of these programs to an end at the earliest date possible.
· He has a good chance of getting most of the things he wanted in his budget plan for health care, renewable energy, education, and infrastructure. These programs will add to the budget deficit and the national debt will go through the roof. We need to increase the taxes on the richest people, who benefited the most under Bush, to reduce the budget deficit.
· He initiated the work on completely reshaping the tax code, eliminating the loopholes that many rich individuals and corporations use to escape from paying their fair share of taxes. The Board led by Paul Volcker will issue recommendations by the end of the year.
· He reversed Bush's ban on stem cell research.
· He made it easier for women to sue for job discrimination.
· He extended health care to millions of children.
· He extended the National Service program.
· He set aside huge tracts of wilderness for federal protection.
· He proposed a nationwide super-speed train system.

Foreign Policy:

· He ordered to close the Guantanamo Bay prison.
· He ordered to not use torture to extract information from terrorist suspects, thereby putting the U.S. in full compliance with the Geneva Convention Treaty. I support releasing the Bush Administration memos on torture policy, but I see no sensible purpose in prosecuting the government lawyers and other administration officials for any past infraction of the international laws. I strongly oppose Congress getting involved in this matter. Congress is the least productive part of the government, so they need to focus on important issues such as health care, energy, and education rather than get distracted by this issue, given that Obama has already changed Bush's policy on torture.
· He kept his promise on having a schedule for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.
· He put in place a plan to increase the combat capability of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan where lies the real threat from Al Qaeda and Taliban. While he didn't get more combat forces from France and Germany, they did agree to provide more personnel to train Afghan's armed forces.
· He took a small step towards Cuba by allowing family visits and remittances of money from the U.S. to Cuba. Cuba is a small and impoverished country and it is no threat to the U.S. Obama must take further steps such as dropping the trade embargo leading up to establishing full diplomatic relationship with Cuba.
· He proposed a new policy for Pakistan, increasing financial aid in exchange for more cooperation in combating the extremists. I would rather see that any new aid be handed out in an incremental manner only after Pakistan has met certain benchmarks. The U.S. must also develop a plan to seize Pakistan's WMD in case the present chaos caused by the Taliban becomes more ominous.
· He gave the orders to shoot the Somali pirates and free the American hostage, dispelling many Republicans' fear that Obama is weak and he lacks resolve to deal with the evil people in the world.
· Nothing much happened on the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. I think it's time for the U.S. to impose the two-state solution on the warring parties rather than let this conflict drag out for another fifty years. The U.S. must make financial aid to Israel conditional upon the progress in resolving this issue once and for all.
· His policy of engagement with North Korea and Iran is correct and his foreign policy team needs to get going on both of these issues. I think Secretary Hillary Clinton should visit Pyongyang and Tehran for high-level direct talks, leading up to establishing diplomatic relations with both countries in exchange for full accounting of WMD programs and appropriate verification procedures.
· His policy of putting missile defense in Poland and Czechoslovakia on hold is correct but in exchange Russia must agree to leave Georgia and do away with this cold-war era mindset of having a zone of influence covering the old Soviet Union countries. Regardless, Obama is right in initiating negotiations with Russia on the reduction of nuclear arsenal.
· He reversed Bush's policy on global warming and the U.S. is now fully committed to working with the United Nations on reducing gas emissions and the carbon footprint.

While Obama is methodically going about fulfilling his campaign pledges, Republicans are divided with no clear spokesman. At the moment, the right-wing extremists seem to have the upper hand, which is not helping the Party. Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, a moderate, defected to the Democratic Party which is a tremendous loss for the Republican Party. Republicans also suffer from very weak leaders in the Senate and House. Given Obama's dominance and ineffective Republican opposition, the Republican Party is unlikely to do well in the next round of elections. Republicans need to do away with their ideological tendencies and pursue more pragmatic policies to regain the confidence of the American people.

So Obama had a good start and he seems to be doing quite well in opinion polls with an approval rating of 68%. However, this love-fest could end just as quickly, if the economy doesn't improve in the coming months. Unless his policies lead to tangible results soon, a brilliant start wouldn't amount to much. The Obama administration badly needs a little bit of luck in turning around the housing industry and thus the economy, implementing his health care plan, defeating Islamic extremists in Afghanistan and Pakistan, resolving the nuclear issues with North Korea and Iran, and settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict once and for all. If Obama accomplishes all of that, he will be a shoe-in for a second term to tackle the long-term issues of energy independence, Social Security and Medicare, and budget deficit and national debt. On the other hand, if his policies fizzle, with no other credible alternative in sight, the country could be in a real fix for a long time.