Trump did it, his own way!

Posted by Shyam Moondra

The 2016 presidential campaign has been like none in the history of the United States. Donald J. Trump, a non-politician, talking politically incorrect (uttering words that no politician would dare to speak in public), spending a fraction of what his opponent spent on the campaign (in fact, a lot of his own money), being at the receiving end of mockery of a majority of dishonest media, being ridiculed by foreign leaders and stand-up comedians alike, deserted by his own party leaders, and mocked by the sitting president, showed to the world that he could still prevail in the historic election. Trump’s deft handling of his campaign and holding rallies at just the right places and at right times show that he is indeed smarter than the current breed of stupid politicians in Washington, DC. The media pundits, who universally predicted that Trump had no chance against the seasoned and well financed politician, former Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton, will now earn their paychecks by trolling their theories about how Trump did it and writing books about it. The dishonest media would now have another chore to undertake – criticizing everything that President Trump does – and, again, against all odds, Trump will deliver on his promises. That’s the kind of man he is – he is strong willed, determined, energized (how many politicians can hold six rallies in six different cities in a single day crisscrossing the country?), and very focused on what he wants to do. Trump is like a swimmer who dives right into the wave to get past it rather than tries to duck it. The media is underestimating Trump’s potential as one of the strongest leaders of the free world in recent memory.

 

Brexit started the wave of nationalism in Europe, which quickly hit the shores of the U.S.; Trump seized the moment and adopted the core principle of America First (“Brexit paves the way for Trump to win the presidency,” The Moondra Post, June 24, 2016) in propelling his candidacy through the Republican primaries, in which he knocked out sixteen other candidates many of whom were accomplished career politicians with tons of campaign money.

 

President Trump is unlikely to waste any time. Given that Trump’s party controls both House of Representatives and Senate, he is expected to move quickly on several fronts:

·         Trump will appoint a conservative to fill the vacant seat on the U.S. Supreme Court and solidify the slate of conservatives on the bench.

·         Trump will repeal Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and replace it with a better plan which will bring down health care premiums by fostering competition across state borders.

·         Trump will cancel many of President Barack Obama’s Executive Orders, especially those related to climate change that put an extraordinary burden on American companies.

·         Trump may appoint a cabinet-level person to weed through countless new regulations created during the Obama presidency and drop many of them to make it easier for businesses to operate, especially in the energy area. Reduced regulations will enormously help small businesses.

·         With the help of Democrats, Trump is expected to move quickly on ambitious infrastructure projects to repair roads, bridges, etc.

·         Trump will waste no time in making the necessary investments to modernize the military.

·         Trump will finally get tax reforms done that have been languishing for years, even though both Obama and Congressmen expressed interest in them.

·         Trump is likely to appoint someone as an Inner City Czar and charge him or her to come up with a plan to revitalize crumbling metro areas and create job opportunities for minority youths that are involved in destructive gangs and violent crime.

·         Trump will immediately deport illegal immigrants who have criminal record. While he may not actually build a wall on the southern border, he may use that as a threat to get more cooperation from Mexico to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking across the border. Trump will certainly increase border patrol and surveillance.

Given so much to do at home, Trump may be slow in moving on foreign policy issues. The following actions are likely:

·         Trump may work with the Congress to cancel the Iran nuclear deal and strengthen sanctions on Iran.

·         Trump will take a tough stance on terrorism and suspend financial and military aid to countries that breed terrorism such as Pakistan.

·         Trump will open dialogue with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, but will move cautiously. Trump is likely to demand that Russia give back Crimea to Ukraine and guarantee non-interference in neighboring countries in exchange for accommodation on the deployment of defensive missile shield in Europe. Trump will convince Putin to focus more on mutually beneficial trade and commercial interests. They might also agree to act together against ISIS.

·         Trump is unlikely to engage in regime changes in the Middle-East, but rather focus on incentives for economic development as a way to induce Israel and Palestinians to resolve their territorial  disagreements and bring about the long overdue two-state solution.

·         Trump will put the issue of NATO relevance on the back burner, but will insist that NATO partners pay their fair share of costs.

·          Trump will renegotiate NAFTA and pull out of TPP. He will focus more on bi-lateral trade deals rather than seek global deals (one size doesn't fit all). He will find ways to encourage corporations to keep manufacturing in the U.S. rather than move abroad.

Given that Trump is an impatient man and someone who thrives on resolving issues, he will be relentless in solving nation’s problems. If Congress works with him and together they begin to solve problems, the approval rating of Congress will finally break out of decade-old single digit range. Trump has a tremendous opportunity to work on multiple issues and get them done very efficiently, just as he has done during the presidential campaign. The media could also play a constructive role and help Trump achieve the full potential of his presidency which is to Make America Great Again.

A tug of war between Trump’s capitalist approach and Clinton’s socialist agenda

Posted by Shyam Moondra

In the post-WW II era, the industrial revolution led the western world to a period of high economic growth and prosperity. But then came the period of complacency in which the governments encouraged shorter work weeks, longer paid vacations, liberal benefits, and increased freebies from the governments in the form of subsidized food, education, health care, housing, and child care that made the population increasingly dependent on the government and less self-reliant. The wave of socialism, coupled with higher taxes and higher government expenditures, has contributed to the decline of capitalist system which is making it harder for free-market economies to grow. The slow or negative growth has led to higher budget deficits and record national debts. These trends have been more prevalent and more pronounced in Europe where many countries are now in dire financial situation. In the United States, it has been estimated that during the presidency of Barrack Obama, the welfare programs have increased government expenditures by $1 trillion that could not possibly be sustained in the future. Obama’s legacy is doubling up the national debt to almost $20 trillion.

The global financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent bailouts of banks around the world have created another destabilizing situation in the form of income inequality. The top 10% of the people around the world handsomely benefited from bank bailouts and they became even more rich, while the rest of the people lost ground. Even today, almost a decade later, a majority of people are still struggling. In the United States, stagnant incomes of the middle-class has become an explosive issue in the current election cycle. Globalization of trade has also contributed to stagnant incomes of common people because high-paying manufacturing jobs are being outsourced to emerging economies where the labor cost is much lower than in the western world. In many industrialized cities such as Cleveland, Detroit, and Buffalo, we now see a frighteningly ghostly sight of deserted plants with broken windows and falling roofs, and deteriorating homes and streets.

During the current presidential election, Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has sharply moved to the left to attract the supporters of her primary opponent Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT), a self-proclaimed socialist. She now promises a minimum wage of $15 an hour, free college education, free health care for all children, and no more trade deals (such as TPP) that have the potential to move high paying jobs from the U.S. to other emerging countries. To pay for all new programs, she proposes to increase the taxes on the rich and corporations that are comparatively already too high. If Clinton wins in the general election, we will see a third Obama term with continuing budget deficits and crushing national debt. The Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, on the other hand, proposes to increase infrastructure spending and reduce taxes for the middle class and corporations to give economy a big boost. Trump’s overriding focus is on growing economy faster to create more high-paying jobs (Trump also disfavors unfair trade deals such as NAFTA and TPP) and only that will move the recipients of government freebies from welfare rolls to employment rolls. High growth rates will also reduce chronically high unemployment rates among the minorities in the inner cities. The polls consistently show that almost two-third of the electorate thinks that presently the country is moving in the wrong direction which seems to favor Trump’s approach.

If Clinton wins in November, she might keep most of Obama’s policies in place with an emphasis on “tax and spend” philosophy. If Trump wins, his focus would be to cut taxes and spend on infrastructure to stimulate economy, reduce regulations to make it easier for small businesses to thrive, and modify trade deals to discourage migration of high-paying manufacturing jobs to other countries. Only the election will tell where the electorate stands in terms of Republican capitalist approach with reduced government regulations vs Democratic socialist approach to solve the twin problems of stagnated wages and income inequality.

Brexit paves the way for Trump to win the presidency

Posted by Shyam Moondra


Yesterday, the people of the U.K. decided in a close referendum to exit the EU. Supporters of so-called Brexit were jubilant and called the day as Independence Day. The people were basically voting against globalization, influx of uncontrolled immigration of refugees from Syria and elsewhere, and increased terrorism risk posed by open borders within the EU. The same issues are driving the candidacy of Donald J. Trump, the Republican presumptive nominee, here in the U.S.

Trump has been hammering at the issue of unfair global trade deals that are encouraging American multi-national companies to move jobs to less industrialized countries with cheap labor, causing stagnated job market domestically and huge loss of manufacturing base in the U.S. This globalization has amounted to an unprecedented transfer of jobs and wealth from rich countries to developing countries such as China, India, Brazil, Vietnam, Mexico, and others. The workers here in the U.S. have experienced stagnated incomes and increased income inequality that are fueling resentment among the masses. The rise of Trump is no accident; given the global trends, it was inevitable that extreme dissatisfaction among the population will turn into popular movements.

The U.S., like in the E.U, has also had this growing problem of illegal immigrants, numbering in tens of millions from Mexico and other impoverished countries in the region aided by the U.S. open borders. These undocumented immigrants are taxing the government services system and creating a shadow economy that is hurting the country’s economic well being. The U.K., along with other E.U. countries, has had similar economic migration because of passport-less borders within the E.U. In the U.S., the current presidential election cycle has afforded the people a timely opportunity to voice their opposition to illegal immigration. Trump, who has advocated to build a wall along our southern border with Mexico and to deport millions of illegal immigrants, easily managed to capture the support of many Americans who urgently want the immigration reforms. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presumptive nominee, has in fact opposed Trump’s proposal to build the wall on the southern border with Mexico and she has also spoken against deporting millions of illegal immigrants who are already here in the U.S.

In the wake of growing violence in the Middle-East caused by the rise of ISIS, millions of refugees from Syria, Iraq, Libya, and elsewhere are trying to migrate to the EU and the U.S. This huge influx of migrant asylum seekers in the West has created an opening for ISIS jihadists to enter the EU and the U.S. as refugees and engage in Islamic terrorism. In recent months, we have had a marked increase in terrorist acts in France, Belgium, Germany, and the U.S. that has been attributed to ISIS. Many local residents resent their governments agreeing to let thousands of refugees with possibly fake Syrian passports enter their countries and increase the risk of terrorist acts in their own homeland. President Barack Obama, in spite of reservations expressed by many security experts, has continued to let thousands of migrant refugees come to the U.S. In fact, Clinton has said that she will increase the number of these refugees who are allowed to settle in the U.S. over and above proposed by Obama.

The nationalist feeling has been on the rise in the West and the Brexit referendum is the first concrete proof that the people want less globalization, better control of their country’s borders, and more strict standards for allowing migrant refugees to enter their countries on asylum. Trump’s “America First” is not just a slogan; it is a heartfelt expression of millions of people around the world and they want their governments to put them first. The Brexit referendum has strengthened the basic premise of Trump's political campaign and he may very well win the presidency in November, albeit by a small margin.