Hillary Clinton's road to presidency involves a sharp right turn

Posted by Shyam Moondra

 

With the formal announcement by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that she is now officially running for the White House, it is widely believed that she will get the nomination of the Democratic Party. On the Republican side, several politicians have already announced their candidacies (or plan to announce in the near future) for the highest office of the land, but most of them do not have a realistic chance of getting their party's nomination. It's highly unlikely that the country would elect a minority the third time in a row - twice a Black man and now a Hispanic. So, that rules out Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Sen. Ron Paul (R-KY), a Tea Party inspired candidate, is a niche politician with underwhelming following primarily because of the declining vigor of Tea Party itself. Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)  is viewed as too rightist for the mainstream America. The candidacy of Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL), the younger brother of the former two-term president, George W. Bush, is burdened by the fact that former president's misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan are still too fresh on people's minds - his unnecessary wars cost the U.S. Treasury almost $1 trillion and his pro-rich policies widened the gap between the rich and the poor. On the other hand, Democrat Clinton has better odds to become the next president, especially because of the strong support she enjoys among women, the largest voting block of the electorate, who sincerely believe that it's about time for a woman to have the most powerful job in the world. However, Clinton knows that in politics nothing is ever guaranteed; she learned that in the primaries running up to the 2008 election when she lost to President Barack Obama for the Democratic Party nomination. Clinton understands that a lot of hard work lies ahead.

Obama won presidency twice because many people thought that the Republican candidates in the last two presidential elections were the clones of discredited former President Bush; Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was too trigger-happy hawkish at a time when people were fatigued by non-stop wars and Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) was too pro-rich at a time when the poor were left way behind. Obama, however, turned out to be too liberal for the majority of Americans, who politically tend to be centrist, and his policies have fallen flat, as is evident from his consistently and persistently low approval rating. Clearly, it would be foolish for Clinton to envision a third Obama-term and run on his record.

Below is a list of things that Clinton needs to do:

1. Be confident, but not over-confident. Behave as an underdog; it worked for Bill Clinton when he ran the first time for the White House and it also worked for Obama's first bid.
2. To be a strong leader, one doesn't have to be blunt and sarcastic all the time. As a president, Clinton would have to come across as a thoughtful stateswoman, here and abroad. The people generally don't like leaders who are sarcastic and angry. Clinton needs to be a Truman, looking calm but carrying a big stick.
3. Clinton must be willing to govern from slightly right of the center (just like her husband did). Most Americans are at the center and that's where the voters are in large numbers. Obama made a mistake of coming across as an enemy of business (may be somewhat unfair perception) and someone who was solely focused on poor people. To win, Clinton would need to put together a coalition of moderate and conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, and centrist Independents. Clinton (and her husband before her) has a strong track record with Blacks and Hispanics, so in the general election she doesn't need to worry too much about them (of course, to make sure that they don't stay home on the election day, she will have to have special campaign events targeting them, but those events should be low-key and far fewer in-between). Clinton may have the temptation to behave like a liberal to win in the primary election but talk more like a conservative in the general election to appeal to the moderate Republicans and Independents. However, that strategy will raise the question if Clinton has any core values and principles. The voters generally don't like candidates who change their positions on issues depending on which way the political wind is blowing.
4. On policy matters, the following is what a majority of Americans are looking for:

• Obama has resurrected the welfare state that former President Bill Clinton dismantled during his presidency. It has been estimated that under Obama, the welfare cost has zoomed up to almost a trillion dollars a year that include food aid, disability benefits, social services, educational assistance, housing assistance, vocational training, medical assistance, energy and utility assistance, child care and development, etc. Many of these welfare programs are fraught with waste, fraud, and abuse and they are growing at an alarming rate which could worsen the budget deficit problem. While Obama’s focus on helping the poor is noble, the welfare state is just a band aid approach to dealing with the broader issues of unemployment or under-employment and poverty. The welfare programs, without an expanding economy, make the poor people permanently dependent on the government which is hardly an ideal outcome. This approach actually locks the poor people in perpetual poverty without any realistic hope to get out of the sink hole. What we need right now is to find a way to grow economy at a faster clip and create high-paying jobs, and at the same time train the chronically unemployed people to fill those jobs (The Moondra Post, February 12, 2014). Clinton would have to make it clear to moderate Republicans and Independents that she intends to move the people from welfare rolls to payrolls. As the saying goes, if you give a man a fish you feed him for one day, but if you teach him how to catch a fish you set him for life. The increased focus on welfare programs have in fact worsened the gap between the rich and poor.
• The federal tax code, full of special treatments in the form of tax rebates and credits, is no longer fair and it urgently needs to be reformed. Clinton must commit to put this issue at the top of her agenda and work with the Congressional Republicans to achieve a simpler and fairer tax code.
• The issue of government spending beyond its means is a burning issue for many Americans, Republicans or Democrats. Just like Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton needs to clearly state that achieving a balanced budget and bringing down the national debt would be her goals. Clinton needs to express her willingness to find common ground with Republicans on proposing meaningful spending reforms as well as targeted tax increases to balance the budget.
• Our roads, highways, bridges, and tunnels are crumbling, all too visible to most Americans when they step out of their homes and see roads riddled with pot-holes that are beyond patchwork repairs. Most Americans would support a temporary special gasoline tax to pay for repairing our infrastructure that is vital for competing in global trade. This infrastructure spending will act like a stimulus to economy and create millions of new jobs.
• In the area of foreign affairs, given the turmoil in the Middle-East, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and China's assertive policies in the South China Sea, it is important to have strong military and as such Clinton must speak about the need for increasing the defense budget. Obama's perceived image of leading from the behind has emboldened our adversaries, so the next president would have to restore America's credibility in the world by providing strong leadership on the global stage. Having served as the Secretary of State, Clinton has valuable hands-on experience in foreign affairs that would give her an advantage over her opponents in the 2016 election.
• To solve the problem of widening income gap between the rich and poor, Clinton could use Small Business Administration as a vehicle to give the poor a chance to become rich by providing the necessary training and financing. Small businesses create jobs, so Clinton should make it clear to the Republicans that she would work with them to make Small Business Administration an important department within the federal government and appoint a cabinet level secretary to run it.
• In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, the government regulations on banks have gone too far;  the banks are now "over safe" which decreases the efficiency of capital flow and that is preventing economy from attaining robust 4% or higher GDP growth rate (The Moondra Post, June 8, 2014). Clinton should work with Republicans to streamline and prune these regulations and let the free-market economy work without the heavy handed micro-management of the publicly held financial institutions (e.g., making decisions on dividends and stock buybacks).

Clinton is not expected to have tough competition in the primaries; therefore, she should start thinking about her vision for the general election of 2016. Given Obama's low approval rating, Clinton would have to articulate her vision for the future that puts her slightly on the right of the center of the political spectrum. To win the presidency, Clinton would need to put together a broader coalition that also includes moderate Republicans. Obama moved too far to the left, making it harder for him to work effectively with the Congressional Republicans that now control both the Senate and House and develop bi-partisan solutions to the problems. If Clinton wants to tear-down the ugly gridlock in Washington, DC and have a successful presidency, she would have to incorporate some of the Republican policy ideas as part of her own vision. This simply means that she will have to make a sharp right turn to get to the White House.