Posted by Shyam Moondra
Not long ago, bruising fights with the Congressional Republicans over the issues of national debt ceiling and deficit reduction left President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the dumpsters with questionable prospects for getting re-elected in November of this year. However, since then, Obama seems to have been blessed with a string of lucky breaks that may have considerably improved the odds in favor of his re-election.
First, the economy, which was floundering because of the headwinds caused by EU debt issues and gridlock in the Congress at home, now seemed to have unexpectedly bounced back with unemployment declining to 8.5%. This has pushed the stock market up close to its 52-week high. As a result, the American voters are now beginning to feel that Obama’s policies may finally be taking hold and happy days are ahead. The corporations with a cash hoard of $3 trillion are finally feeling confident enough to take risks and put some of that money to work. Given the inner resilience of American economy, it seems quite possible that the economic reports in the coming months would increasingly point to a robust recovery, just in time for the presidential election in November. The timing could not have been better.
Second, the FED Chairman Ben Bernanke, re-appointed by Obama to a second four-year term despite the loud calls from the Congress to remove him, has improved Obama’s chances of re-election by declaring that the interest rates would remain at the current low levels at least through 2014. Bernanke, by not ruling out QE3, has further given a boost to the financial markets. So far, the Republicans have not charged that Bernanke is politicizing the FED policies to help an incumbent president.
Third, the opposition is in disarray. Republican voters are proving to be the weirdest ever. First, they propelled Herman Cain to the top – a man who had no political experience, who has been accused of being a serial sexual harasser and a wife cheater, and who had no idea where Libya is located; did Republicans really want to put him in the oval office with his finger on the nuclear trigger? Now their new darling is Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker, who used to be known in the Congress as a back-bencher bomb thrower, who got reprimanded by the Congress for corruption and influence peddling, who has been accused of being a serial wife cheater, and who pocketed taxpayers’ $1.6 million as a lobbyist for Freddie-Mac and then criticized the financial bailout (Gingrich claims that he was hired as a “historian”). Republicans, known for conservative family values, are embracing people like Cain and Gingrich? Go figure! If Gingrich were to somehow win the nomination, it’s hard to imagine that he will get many women votes in the general election. The most likely winner of the Republican primary, Gov. Mitt Romney, is not the strongest candidate Republican Party could have come up with. Recent revelation that in 2010 he paid less than 15% in income taxes makes him part of the problem and not the solution. He apparently paid less in taxes than Warren Buffett’s secretary did. Also, how he made his fortune is contentious; as a private equity investor he bought companies and made money by laying off people and getting help from the government in the form of pro-rich tax policies. Romney is the kind of people that are currently being targeted by the “Occupy Wall Street” protesters. Romney, by all accounts, is considered quite moderate and thus will fail to inspire the hard-core conservatives within the Republican Party. Romney’s health care plan, which he implemented in Massachusetts as the Governor there, has more similarities than dissimilarities with that of the Obama plan. His Mormon religion is also a put off to many Republican evangelical Christians. The Romney’s candidacy is unlikely to fire-up the Republican base and without a heavy turnout in the November election it’s highly unlikely that he could win.
Fourth, the Congressional Republicans, especially the House Republicans, have damaged the Republican brand by their extreme behavior on the issue of debt ceiling, which led to the downgrade pf the U.S. government securities, a first in the nation’s history. The Republican leaders have transformed the current Congress into a “Do Nothing” Congress which has baffled many Americans. The current Congress enjoys a record low approval rating of only 9% which is a fraction of the approval rating for Obama. Obama is expected to run against the “Do Nothing” Congress and easily prevail.
Fifth, Republicans have not helped themselves by appearing to be disrespectful to the office of the presidency. The photo showing Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) pointing her finger into Obama’s face during a heated conversation on the tarmac at Phoenix when Obama landed there for a visit to Arizona, didn’t play well with many Americans. The House Speaker John Boehner’s unprecedented refusal to grant Obama’s request to address the joint session of Congress on his Jobs Bill and forcing Obama to re-schedule the speech made Boehner look petty and disrespectful to the president. Many observers believe that if Obama were a white man, these sorts of insults would have been unthinkable.
Aside from improving economy and weak Republican candidates, Obama has many things going for him:
• Obama has built up a huge war chest, thanks to the campaign contributions pouring in from his supporters, big and small. Obama’s re-election campaign is expected to raise close to $1 billion, a record in the U.S. presidential elections. With that kind of money, Obama will instantly gain the upper hand in getting his populous message out.
• Obama's stellar performance as the Commander-in-Chief has completely neutralized the Republican favorite issue of national defense and security on which they usually mount their election campaigns. The fact that Obama got Osama bin Laden, who evaded President George W. Bush for years, firmed up Obama’s credentials on national security. Also, Obama kept his promises by winding down the unpopular war in Iraq and putting the withdrawal from Afghanistan on a fast track. His reliance on high-tech weapon systems such as drones is proving to be highly effective at a fraction of the cost of traditional warfare. Obama’s deft handling of the Arab Spring has won praise from Democrats and Republicans, and our allies. The last century belonged to our cross-Atlantic alliances; Obama's new initiative to focus on the Pacific region will set the stage for the next hundred years of prosperity with many of the highly populated emerging economies.
• Obama is hitting the issues with targeted constituents. For example, his moderate immigration proposals compared with harsh rhetoric coming from the Republican primary candidates bode well for his chances of winning the Latino votes in the crucial states of Florida, Arizona, and Texas. Obama’s proposals on cutting back federal funding for colleges that are not controlling the increases in tuition fee is getting good traction among the younger people who are expected to have a big turnout in November. Obama’s constant emphasis on reforming the tax code to make it more fair and equitable has a strong support among the voters of all parties.
• Obama’s personal qualities have been impeccable. Michelle Obama, one of the most effective First Ladies of modern times, has proven to be a strong asset. Obama’s family values and personal ethics appeal to the people from all walks of life. The Obamas have been particularly active in looking after the interests of the members of the U.S. armed forces and their families, which is appreciated by many people including conservatives.
