Let the show begin – Trumpmenia is in, political correctness is out

Posted by Shyam Moondra


The 2016 presidential race has begun and the Trump brand of politics is surprisingly resonating with the people who are fed up with the “Do Nothing” Congress. There is a clear consensus that the politicians in Washington, DC have lost their way and they are not only not solving any problems but they are making the lives of people harder than ought to be, and under their leadership the country is rapidly sliding into chaos with slow-growth economy, high unemployment, stagnated incomes, loss of America’s prestige in the world, and increasing extremism within the society. It was not a “huge” job for billionaire Donald Trump, a graduate of ivy-league school, to tap into this utter disillusionment among the voters and deliver his inspiring message in politically incorrect way with a catchy slogan “Make America Great Again.” Traditional politicians armed with hundreds of millions of campaign dollars raised via super-PACs, don’t quite know how to counter Trumpmenia. The voters are mesmerized by Trump’s blunt talk against the “stupid” government and they seem to believe that he is the only one in the pack who could actually solve the people’s problems and restore America’s greatness again. The voters also believe that Trump, who is using his own fortune to run for the presidency, is not controlled by lobbyists as every other candidate is; hence, they conclude that Trump will do what is in the best interest of the country rather than what’s best for raising campaign funds and getting re-elected.

Below is a snapshot of where we stand in the evolving presidential race which has all the trademarks of a Shakespearean comedy-cum-drama (mostly because of Trump’s speaking his mind in uninhibited way, using words that other politicians wouldn’t dare to utter in public):

·         The gap between the rich and the poor is at its worst in recent history. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the ultra-easy monetary policies pursued by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the ECB in EU have benefited the rich the most, thereby worsening income inequality. This has led to a wave of socialistic sentiment spreading throughout the world, especially in the U.S. and EU. With the rich becoming richer and the middle-class hit very hard, the support for right-wing conservatism (that espouses trickle-down economics) has steadily declined in the U.S. This trend will be a key factor in the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S. as well as national elections in the U.K.  The recent polls show that candidates who consider themselves as conservatives are lagging while pragmatists and socialists (e.g., Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders) are doing relatively better. In the U.K. the Labor Party is well situated to prevail over the Conservative Party.
 

·         With the approval rating of the Congress stuck in low 10’s for many years, mostly because of the gridlock in Washington, DC and lackluster leadership by the Congressional leaders, the time seems ripe for tossing the political system upside down. The people are disgusted and they are shouting that they will not take it anymore. They want to throw the “Do Nothing” Congress under the bus and start all over. The people believe that the members of Congress are not earning their paychecks and perks. These "stupid" people, as Trump likes to call them, know that their approval rating is very low and yet they just don't care and they continue to stick to their chairs. Most honorable people would rather say that if people disapprove of their performance, then they should just leave. But no, they found the best career there is where they are paid handsomely and they have the lucrative benefits, and they don't even have to be in office to do absolutely nothing. The people wouldn't hesitate to elect Trump and let him loose and straighten out Washington DC - Trump could chase these no-good people out of the Capitol or make them earn their paychecks. President Trump would not hesitate to shame these Senators and Congressmen in colorful language and work to terminate their medical benefits (they can buy their own on Government Exchanges), drop pensions (like many private-sector companies are doing), and make them fill out time sheets and pay for hours they actually do work (after all, paychecks of the members of Congress are handled by the U.S. Treasury department).
 

·         President Barack Obama’s aloofness and unimaginative governing style have unnecessarily prolonged the economic recovery period in the post-financial crisis of 2008. Obama’s lack of popularity at home and his cautious approach to world events (commonly referred to as “leading from behind”), has led to a decline in America’s prestige and it has created a sort of vacuum which has led to unprecedented instability in the Middle East caused by the rise of ISIS, Russian annexation of Crimea, and China’s aggressive policies in the South China Sea. Today, the world peace and security are in a more dangerous space than they were before Obama took office in 2009. The voters are tired of the capital’s destructive political culture and they have a strong dislike for the establishment candidates in both parties, Gov. Jeb Bush (Republican) and Secretary Hillary Clinton (Democrat). The voters’ calculation is that it will take an outsider, such as Trump, to change the status quo which explains why candidates who have never held a political office before are doing much better so far than the big name candidates that are supported by the established party infrastructure (fund raisers and political advisors).

 

Below is a look at the major candidates:

Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 

In recent polls, a majority of people have said that Hillary Clinton is a liar, conniving, dishonest, and untrustworthy. As the Secretary of State, Clinton used a private e-mail server located in the basement of her house; when this became publicly known, she had half of the e-mails deleted and the server wiped clean (so that the deleted e-mails couldn’t be retrieved) before handing over the server to the FBI under a court order. The people strongly suspect that Clinton has been trying to hide wrongdoings. The speculation is that Clinton may have gotten rid of e-mails that Congressional Republicans were seeking in connection with the killing of American ambassador and other personnel at Benghazi in Libya. Some suspect that those e-mails contained classified information which would be considered illegal. There is also speculation that those e-mails may have contained evidence of a clever influence peddling scheme: Clinton, as the Secretary of State, would use her influence to help foreign governments or companies, and, in return, these governments and companies would invite her husband Bill or her daughter Chelsea for paid speeches (paying as much as $700,000 per speech) and make generous donations to Clinton Foundation. The New York Times reported that Clinton intervened with IRS to help Swiss bank UBS on the issue of its role in helping Americans evade income taxes and, in return, UBS invited Bill for paid speeches and donated money to Clinton Foundation. This scheme of influence peddling explains how Clintons became so rich so quickly. When they left the White House in 2000, Clinton said that they were “broke” but now they are reportedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Also, there have been reports that the Clintons have been using the Foundation money to fly in private jets and stay in five-star hotels, and spend relatively less on charity work when compared with other charities. Even Trump commented that if he had known that the Clintons would be flying in private jets, he would not have donated money to their Foundation. There are some people who think that Clinton’s deleting e-mails and wiping clean the mail server before handing over to the FBI amount to obstruction of justice and she should be prosecuted. It seems like the Watergate scandal all over again! President Richard Nixon tried to withhold evidence, tamper with the evidence, and even destroy evidence - and to the end he kept saying that he did nothing wrong. Every day, there were new revelations and finally investigators found the smoking gun - Nixon resigned and he was immediately pardoned by incoming President Gerald Ford so Nixon wouldn't end up in jail for numerous unlawful activities including obstruction of justice. The FBI is still investigating e-mails and Clinton is expected to appear before Congressional committees that are investigating the Benghazi case. Even though Clinton deleted half of the e-mails, those e-mails could still be out there with those who either sent or received those e-mails. This whole issue of e-mails is creating a big uncertainty about the viability of Clinton’s candidacy and her disapproval rating is steadily going up. The vulnerability of Clinton candidacy is prompting Vice President Joe Biden to consider jumping into the race.

Deleted e-mails are the key to exposing any alleged criminal activities. FBI should follow the money trail - who gave how much money to Bill and Chelsea and to Foundation and also look into how Foundation money was spent. Would Obama appointed Attorney General seriously look into all of this? During Obama’s recent vacation, he was seen playing golf with Bill Clinton – given active e-mail investigations, was that Obama’s signal to FBI to not aggressively pursue Hillary Clinton’s e-mail issues?

In terms of policy, Clinton has put forward a detailed plan to make college education free, funded by tax dollars. However, there is a general belief that Clinton’s proposed $350 billion college education plan is a dumb idea and it will never pass Republican controlled Congress. More government money means a green light to schools to keep increasing the tuition fee. Instead of making more money available, the government should regulate tuition fee and try to control the college cost, which has been increasing at a much higher rate than the overall inflation.

Donald Trump (Republican):

Trump is the only candidate who can call the members of Congress as “stupid” or a female journalist as “bimbo” and the people would cheer him every time he uttered politically-incorrect words. The voters think that Trump is telling the truth and he is someone who wouldn’t hesitate to tell the people what he thinks (e.g., deporting all illegal immigrants including those who were born here off parents who came to the U.S. illegally). If any other candidate talked as bluntly as Trump does, that candidate would have crashed and burned already. Blunt talk has become a trademark of Trump and the voters seem to approve as is evident from the poll numbers that show Trump is way ahead of all other candidates. The crowds at his rallies are bigger than at the rallies of all other candidates combined.

One of the reasons why Trump is winning over the voters is that he has highlighted many issues that are also on the minds of voters. Trump has been traveling around the country in his own plane and helicopter tirelessly and the enthusiastic crowds at each stop are responding positively to his hard work (no other candidate has had that many rallies or held that many press conferences).

On policy matters, Trump has talked about the following issues without offering specific plans:

·         Immigration: Trump plans to build a wall on our southern border with Mexico (paid for by increased visa fee for Mexicans), increase drone surveillance, and border patrols. Our southern border is so porous that many non-Mexicans are crossing it illegally either looking for better life for their families or entering the country to engage in espionage or even terrorism. He plans to deport all illegal immigrants including the children who were born here off illegal immigrants. Trump wants to shut down shelters and discontinue welfare programs for those who came here illegally. These benefits are only inviting even more illegal immigrants. Most people agree with Trump on his plan.
 

·         Trump is angry at Obama, who has been dealing with China with soft gloves and letting China gain at our expense. Trump wants to change the U.S. policy towards China dramatically and bring the manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. He will also deal harshly with the U.S. businesses that are exporting the jobs overseas – he said that he will never eat Oreo cookies made by Nabisco because they moved their plant to Mexico. Again, the American people whole heartedly approve his thinking. Trump has mastered the art of deal-making and many people think that he would negotiate better trade deals than Obama.

·         Trump believes that Obama has proven to be a weak international leader and he has decimated our military. He plans to increase defense spending and make the U.S. military a truly superpower to be feared.
 

·         Trump has made treating the veterans better and fixing the veteran hospital a major issue of his campaign and most Americans agree with that.

·         Trump plans to increase taxes by eliminating the tax loophole granted to rich hedge fund managers who are not paying their fair share of taxes. This position is widely supported by the “Occupy Wall Street” activists.

·         Trump believes that under Obama the government regulations have increased exponentially that are hurting our economy, especially the small businesses. He plans to roll back regulations and make the government smaller but more efficient. This resonates well with the members of the Tea Party.
 

·         Most people agree with Trump that we should fight only those wars that need to be fought and we should just let our military commanders win rather than constrain them with all kinds of political considerations. Many voters also agree that we should not fight wars for other countries without being compensated. If Japan or Saudi Arabia or anyone else wants us to partner with them in fighting terrorism or our common adversaries, we shouldn’t be the only one paying for those efforts.

The voters tend to believe that Trump is a no-nonsense business mogul who would rely on good management and competent managers. He will be tougher with Putin and restore American prestige in the world. Under Trump, economy would fare better. Also, he is loaded with money, so he is not in this for money (his campaign is funded by himself so he will not have lobbyists dictating his policies). Even though many voters feel uncomfortable with Trump’s bombastic style and blunt talk, Americans could take a chance with him - if you want the current grid-locked government to work, somebody has to turn it upside down and Trump is the only man who could do it. Assuming Trump can execute his campaign promises, he could do a much better job in managing economy and military than other candidates, while being open minded and pragmatic about social issues. Trump is not an ideologue and many Americans are where he is and that explains why he is resonating with the voters.

Jeb Bush (Republican):

So far, Bush has been a big disappointment. He is not clear on his positions, he has not explained why he wants to be the president, and he comes across as too laid back and an unlikely person who could change things in Washington DC. Also, most voters are fatigued with the names of Bush and Clinton (combined they have had five presidential and two vice-presidential terms already) and they really want someone else who is an “outsider.” The voters don’t believe Bush or Clinton would be able to change the status quo in Washington, DC.

Bush's performance on the campaign trail and the first debate has been surprisingly weak. In one video, his angry exchange with one of the voters was kind of strange that made him look un-presidential. He has flip-flopped on Iraq war several times and his inability to articulate his positions on other issues clearly is very damaging.


The voters elected a black man twice, so it's very unlikely that they will elect another minority this time (if they did, it would reflect poorly on whites as if they don't have presidential caliber people - it would be like minority Sunnis ruling Iraq and we know how that turned out). So that leaves out Dr. Ben Carson, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Sen. Marco Rubio. Gov. Chris Christie can't win even in his home state, so he is out. Gov. Jim Walker is too anti-blue collar which worked in his home state for local elections, but he has not yet found his grooves on the presidential campaign trail. Sen. Rand Paul is a niche Tea Party candidate which lost its vigor in the last couple of years, so he is out. Gov. John Kasich is too nice and not conservative enough; perhaps a likely vice-presidential candidate. Gov. Huckabee is too evangelical which is a turn off to many voters. Carly Fiorina, while she did alright in the first second-tier debate, her negatives include her tenure at Hewlett-Packard that left tens of thousands of employees without jobs and she was fired by the Hewlett-Packard Board. Also, she ran for an elective office before but she was defeated. So, Fiorina is out. The establishment seems to be pushing Bush (judging from the fact that his campaign has raised over $100 million so far, mostly through PACs), but his performance in the first debate and on the trail has been lackluster and voters are tired of the “Bush” name. Trump is ahead in the polls, but the voters have questions about his temperament and, if elected, can he deliver on his promises.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is leading in the polls but Sen. Bernie Sanders is proving to be remarkably strong. However, the country is unlikely to go along with a third socialist Obama-term, so Sanders has no chance (even if he defeats Clinton in the primaries or he gets the nomination by default because Clinton is forced to withdraw from the race because of the e-mail controversy), he is unlikely to be elected as the president.

The election is more than one year away which, in terms of presidential politics, is like eternity. Undoubtedly, there will be ups and downs and changing polls as we go through the remaining debates, but as of now it looks like it would be a Trump vs Clinton contest. The game has just begun, more chapters in this Shakespearean saga are yet to be written.

Hillary Clinton's road to presidency involves a sharp right turn

Posted by Shyam Moondra

 

With the formal announcement by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that she is now officially running for the White House, it is widely believed that she will get the nomination of the Democratic Party. On the Republican side, several politicians have already announced their candidacies (or plan to announce in the near future) for the highest office of the land, but most of them do not have a realistic chance of getting their party's nomination. It's highly unlikely that the country would elect a minority the third time in a row - twice a Black man and now a Hispanic. So, that rules out Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Sen. Ron Paul (R-KY), a Tea Party inspired candidate, is a niche politician with underwhelming following primarily because of the declining vigor of Tea Party itself. Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)  is viewed as too rightist for the mainstream America. The candidacy of Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL), the younger brother of the former two-term president, George W. Bush, is burdened by the fact that former president's misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan are still too fresh on people's minds - his unnecessary wars cost the U.S. Treasury almost $1 trillion and his pro-rich policies widened the gap between the rich and the poor. On the other hand, Democrat Clinton has better odds to become the next president, especially because of the strong support she enjoys among women, the largest voting block of the electorate, who sincerely believe that it's about time for a woman to have the most powerful job in the world. However, Clinton knows that in politics nothing is ever guaranteed; she learned that in the primaries running up to the 2008 election when she lost to President Barack Obama for the Democratic Party nomination. Clinton understands that a lot of hard work lies ahead.

Obama won presidency twice because many people thought that the Republican candidates in the last two presidential elections were the clones of discredited former President Bush; Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was too trigger-happy hawkish at a time when people were fatigued by non-stop wars and Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) was too pro-rich at a time when the poor were left way behind. Obama, however, turned out to be too liberal for the majority of Americans, who politically tend to be centrist, and his policies have fallen flat, as is evident from his consistently and persistently low approval rating. Clearly, it would be foolish for Clinton to envision a third Obama-term and run on his record.

Below is a list of things that Clinton needs to do:

1. Be confident, but not over-confident. Behave as an underdog; it worked for Bill Clinton when he ran the first time for the White House and it also worked for Obama's first bid.
2. To be a strong leader, one doesn't have to be blunt and sarcastic all the time. As a president, Clinton would have to come across as a thoughtful stateswoman, here and abroad. The people generally don't like leaders who are sarcastic and angry. Clinton needs to be a Truman, looking calm but carrying a big stick.
3. Clinton must be willing to govern from slightly right of the center (just like her husband did). Most Americans are at the center and that's where the voters are in large numbers. Obama made a mistake of coming across as an enemy of business (may be somewhat unfair perception) and someone who was solely focused on poor people. To win, Clinton would need to put together a coalition of moderate and conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, and centrist Independents. Clinton (and her husband before her) has a strong track record with Blacks and Hispanics, so in the general election she doesn't need to worry too much about them (of course, to make sure that they don't stay home on the election day, she will have to have special campaign events targeting them, but those events should be low-key and far fewer in-between). Clinton may have the temptation to behave like a liberal to win in the primary election but talk more like a conservative in the general election to appeal to the moderate Republicans and Independents. However, that strategy will raise the question if Clinton has any core values and principles. The voters generally don't like candidates who change their positions on issues depending on which way the political wind is blowing.
4. On policy matters, the following is what a majority of Americans are looking for:

• Obama has resurrected the welfare state that former President Bill Clinton dismantled during his presidency. It has been estimated that under Obama, the welfare cost has zoomed up to almost a trillion dollars a year that include food aid, disability benefits, social services, educational assistance, housing assistance, vocational training, medical assistance, energy and utility assistance, child care and development, etc. Many of these welfare programs are fraught with waste, fraud, and abuse and they are growing at an alarming rate which could worsen the budget deficit problem. While Obama’s focus on helping the poor is noble, the welfare state is just a band aid approach to dealing with the broader issues of unemployment or under-employment and poverty. The welfare programs, without an expanding economy, make the poor people permanently dependent on the government which is hardly an ideal outcome. This approach actually locks the poor people in perpetual poverty without any realistic hope to get out of the sink hole. What we need right now is to find a way to grow economy at a faster clip and create high-paying jobs, and at the same time train the chronically unemployed people to fill those jobs (The Moondra Post, February 12, 2014). Clinton would have to make it clear to moderate Republicans and Independents that she intends to move the people from welfare rolls to payrolls. As the saying goes, if you give a man a fish you feed him for one day, but if you teach him how to catch a fish you set him for life. The increased focus on welfare programs have in fact worsened the gap between the rich and poor.
• The federal tax code, full of special treatments in the form of tax rebates and credits, is no longer fair and it urgently needs to be reformed. Clinton must commit to put this issue at the top of her agenda and work with the Congressional Republicans to achieve a simpler and fairer tax code.
• The issue of government spending beyond its means is a burning issue for many Americans, Republicans or Democrats. Just like Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton needs to clearly state that achieving a balanced budget and bringing down the national debt would be her goals. Clinton needs to express her willingness to find common ground with Republicans on proposing meaningful spending reforms as well as targeted tax increases to balance the budget.
• Our roads, highways, bridges, and tunnels are crumbling, all too visible to most Americans when they step out of their homes and see roads riddled with pot-holes that are beyond patchwork repairs. Most Americans would support a temporary special gasoline tax to pay for repairing our infrastructure that is vital for competing in global trade. This infrastructure spending will act like a stimulus to economy and create millions of new jobs.
• In the area of foreign affairs, given the turmoil in the Middle-East, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and China's assertive policies in the South China Sea, it is important to have strong military and as such Clinton must speak about the need for increasing the defense budget. Obama's perceived image of leading from the behind has emboldened our adversaries, so the next president would have to restore America's credibility in the world by providing strong leadership on the global stage. Having served as the Secretary of State, Clinton has valuable hands-on experience in foreign affairs that would give her an advantage over her opponents in the 2016 election.
• To solve the problem of widening income gap between the rich and poor, Clinton could use Small Business Administration as a vehicle to give the poor a chance to become rich by providing the necessary training and financing. Small businesses create jobs, so Clinton should make it clear to the Republicans that she would work with them to make Small Business Administration an important department within the federal government and appoint a cabinet level secretary to run it.
• In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, the government regulations on banks have gone too far;  the banks are now "over safe" which decreases the efficiency of capital flow and that is preventing economy from attaining robust 4% or higher GDP growth rate (The Moondra Post, June 8, 2014). Clinton should work with Republicans to streamline and prune these regulations and let the free-market economy work without the heavy handed micro-management of the publicly held financial institutions (e.g., making decisions on dividends and stock buybacks).

Clinton is not expected to have tough competition in the primaries; therefore, she should start thinking about her vision for the general election of 2016. Given Obama's low approval rating, Clinton would have to articulate her vision for the future that puts her slightly on the right of the center of the political spectrum. To win the presidency, Clinton would need to put together a broader coalition that also includes moderate Republicans. Obama moved too far to the left, making it harder for him to work effectively with the Congressional Republicans that now control both the Senate and House and develop bi-partisan solutions to the problems. If Clinton wants to tear-down the ugly gridlock in Washington, DC and have a successful presidency, she would have to incorporate some of the Republican policy ideas as part of her own vision. This simply means that she will have to make a sharp right turn to get to the White House.

Obama wins the convention contest – Romney faces make-or-break moment in presidential debates

Posted by Shyam Moondra

Both Republicans and Democrats just finished their back-to-back conventions that seem to give President Barack Obama an edge over the Republican challenger Gov. Mitt Romney. The political party conventions provide a staged platform for introducing their respective candidates, highlighting their visions, and energizing their respective party faithfuls. The Republican Convention was held in Tampa, Florida followed by the Democratic Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina. In 2008, Obama narrowly won both of these states when he ran against Republican candidate Sen. John McCain; this time, Florida is a must-win state for Obama to prevail in November.

The Republican convention, partially disrupted by the tropical storm Isaac, turned out to be a missed opportunity for Romney and his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan. The convention organizers used most of the convention time focusing on reasons for not re-electing Obama as opposed to articulating why people should vote for Romney. The convention was a perfect setting for Republicans to present what the undecided voters were craving for – Romney/Ryan’s vision for the future, especially how they would speed up the economic recovery and create lots of jobs. Romney and his wife, Ann Romney, did a good job in telling the audience who they are, what values they live by, and what role their Mormon faith plays in their lives. However, Romney said nothing about his core convictions and his positions on various issues that seem to have evolved over time. Ryan, supposedly an “idea man,” turned into an “attack dog.” Ryan used up all of his speech to criticize Obama; since then there has been extensive reporting on many of the things he said that turned out to be untrue (more recently, Ryan even lied about his time of marathon that he ran when he was younger).

The Republican convention was the least forward looking convention in recent history. Basically, Romney’s message was “elect me first and then I will tell you what I would do.” This was an important opportunity for Romney and Ryan, with tens of millions of people watching on televisions at homes, to clearly explain what they would do to create jobs or what their policies would be on Medicare, tax cuts, and spending cuts. Given that the U.S. armed forces are still fighting a war in Afghanistan, it was stunning that both Romney and Ryan neglected to acknowledge the sacrifices of men and women in uniform (very odd for Republican Party known to be strong on defense and security). And then there was Hollywood legend Clint Eastwood who gave a bizarre stand-up comedy performance that seemed so out of place at a serious forum. After the convention ended, people were still talking about the Eastwood episode and Romney’s message got lost in the noise.

Recent polls have shown that Romney is running behind Obama among female voters; therefore, most convention speakers talked about women issues. However, that focus seemed kind of forced and unauthentic. Several speakers talked about repealing Obamacare but without explaining what they would replace it with. The speakers aroused the enthusiasm of the delegates by repeating President Ronald Reagan’s line “Are you better off today than four years ago?” which he used against then Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter. Judging from the response of the audience, the convention appeared to have succeeded in energizing the Republican base. However, to win the election, they needed to impress the independents and moderates; it appears that they utterly failed to do so. Republicans made the case why people shouldn’t vote for Obama but they didn’t make the case why they should vote for Romney. Given the lackluster Republican convention, it’s not surprising that Romney got no lift in the polls from the convention, as is normally the case. Romney’s flip-flopping and Ryan’s tendency to lie make Romney and Ryan as the least trustworthy candidates of modern times.

In a recent post-convention speech, Romney used the word “God” several times, suggesting that he doesn’t believe he solidified the support of conservative Republican evangelicals, as yet. Also, Romney conceded that certain parts of Obamacare are desirable and he would like to keep them in his new health care plan that would replace Obamacare. Romney also said that Congressional Republicans made a mistake by agreeing to mandatory $1.5 trillion worth of across-the-board spending cuts. Romney's recent comments seem to suggest that he is trying to move to the center to gain support of the independents and moderates.

Democrats, on the other hand, did a much better job in putting up a good show at their convention. They had several good speakers, notably First Lady Michelle Obama, who delivered one of the most effective convention speeches ever, and former President Bill Clinton, who delivered another remarkable speech in which he explained complicated policy issues in a way that people could easily understand. Clinton said that the relevant question is “are you better off today than two-and-a-half years ago?” (and not “are you better off today than four years ago”). The reason being, as Clinton argued, Obama’s first one-and-a-half years were used up to deal with the worsening recession caused by the severe financial crisis left behind by Obama’s predecessor, President George W. Bush. During the Bush’s final year, we lost 2.6 million jobs. In the last two-and-a-half years, Obama has created 4.5 million new jobs. In recent months, the data seems to suggest that the housing market has finally started to recover and the average housing prices are beginning to rise. So the Democrats’ message was that we are on the right track and Obama should be given four more years to finish the job.

Bill Clinton has been at odds with Obama since Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Primary elections of 2008. Recently, Bill Clinton made some comments that seemed to support Romney (Romney campaign even used Bill Clinton in their political ads); although later Bill Clinton backtracked on those comments. The theory behind Bill Clinton’s strong support for Obama at the convention seems to be that Hillary Clinton would fare better in the presidential election in 2016 against a new Republican candidate rather than running against incumbent President Romney; so Bill Clinton is doing everything he can to get Obama re-elected.

Sen. John Kerry, in one of the best speeches he has ever delivered, outlined Obama’s foreign policy successes and he painted Romney as utterly inexperienced and naive in foreign affairs. Romney’s following statements were cited as examples to show that he is not ready for the job he is seeking: On Day 1 he will declare China as the currency manipulator, Russia is our enemy number one, he will order the U.S.  military involvement in Syria and Iran (the American people have no appetite to get involved in more large scale wars and by the way how would Romney pay for these new wars?), and that on Day 1 he will move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Obama’s speech was good but not as effective and inspiring as in 2008. To his credit, he touched upon his vision going forward that Romney neglected to do. Vice President Joe Biden stayed out of trouble which is good enough for him; although he did come up with a catchy sound bite “Osama bin Laden is dead and GM is alive.” Democrats did a good job in pointing out that Romney has a record of his constantly changing positions on issues, so it is hard to pinpoint his core beliefs, if he has any. Obama’s main problem is economy and the recent jobs report, which showed that only 96,000 new jobs were created last month (although unemployment rate went down from 8.3% to 8.1%), crystallizes that problem.

Democrats had many more interesting and effective speakers than Republicans did. All in all, Democrats won and Obama came out of the convention season with a slight edge over Romney.

The next critical phase of the 2012 presidential election consists of a series of one-on-one debates in October, the first of which is scheduled for Oct 3rd in Denver, Colorado to be moderated by PBS’ Jim Lehrer. Obama is currently ahead in the polls by a few points in terms of popular votes and comfortably ahead in terms of electoral votes; therefore, the burden is on Romney to demonstrate in the first debate that he is ready for the highest office in the land. If Romney stumbles in the Denver debate, it would be awfully hard for him to recover.